10 Dangerous Things People Say About Stocks (According to Peter Lynch)

10 Dangerous Things People Say About Stocks (According to Peter Lynch)

Don’t fall for the usual stock market platitudes. Here are 10 phrases that legendary investor Peter Lynch warns you against.

All roads lead to Rome. Or do they? No, they don’t.

There are so many sayings that we use to make snap decisions, but when you really think about them, they’re a load of crap.

This is true in life – and it applies to stock market investing.

While it might be fun to throw around a few comments at a family party, be careful what you say about investments. Sometimes these crazy little phrases become our truth. Sometimes we end up buying or selling because of some stupid words… and ruin our financial future.

Peter Lynch’s Points Are Evergreens

In 1997, legendary investor Peter Lynch – former portfolio manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund – gave a speech on this very topic.

Okay, yes, granted, Peter Lynch stopped working as a money manager over 30 years ago (he was active from 1977 to 1990), and his speech is from 1997. It’s been a while.

Yawn? No. Please wait.

The takeaways from his talk are evergreen. They still hold true to this day. Don’t think so? Give it a read and see if you recognize these sayings.

By the way, did I mention that Peter Lynch got an average annual return of 29.2%? Now that is extraordinary.

Peter Lynch invested as a value investor (he carefully looked at companies and bought them when they had fallen below their intrinsic value), but he called his strategy “story investing.” Story investing means that he built a thorough thesis about the company and its future growth, and he called this thesis “a story.”

You Must Know What You Are Investing In

As an introduction to his speech, Peter Lynch explains that it’s important that you know what you are investing in.

You must really know the company, understand the product and read the annual report.

Too many private investors buy shares in something without knowing what they are making money on… or if they even make any money.

He also says to stop trying to predict recessions and stock market movements. You are better off focusing on understanding the businesses.

Okay, enough intro. What are some of the platitudes and phrases that he warns against?

1. “The stock has gone down so much, it can’t go any lower.”

Oh, yes it can drop more. It always can (unless it has reached 0).

This attitude is especially dangerous when you combine it with buying shares in something that you have not studied.

He uses the example of Polaroid (yes, it was a publicly traded company once and not just a peculiar retro camera), whose share price fell from 140 to 107 USD per share. According to Peter Lynch, people at the time said, “just load up the truck if it hits 100, because it couldn’t possibly fall any more.”

Yes, it sounds funny today, 30 years later, because we all know that new technology trampled the company to pieces.

Back then, the company’s stock fell to $18 in just nine months. In 2001 they went bankrupt.

2. The stock is this high already – it can’t possibly get any higher.”

But yes, it can rise more – and the market can be irrational longer than you can be solvent, as a wise man once said.

Peter Lynch uses tobacco company Philip Morris as an example. The stock increased fivefold in ten years, going from 12 cents in 1951 to 61 cents in 1961.

“It can’t rise any higher,” people said.

But it did, and it turned into a hundred bagger anyway, meaning it went up 100 times.

3. “Eventually, they always come back around.”

No, not everything will bounce back to its old peak.

The idea that “the stock market always goes up in the long term” and that you can therefore buy shares in anything and expect it to go up eventually is nonsense.

Peter Lynch uses RCA and Western Union as examples.

You could also take a lot of examples from the IT bubble, but it only burst two years after his speech.

Maybe in a few decades, we’ll be looking at some AI stocks as an example.

I am acutely aware that many of the stocks that we see flying so high today are at risk of falling drastically and never quite getting back to that high level. But of course, I don’t know.

4. “It’s just 3 dollars, how much can I lose?

You can theoretically lose everything that you invest. But people have this fixed idea that it is less risky to invest in companies where the nominal value of the individual share is low.

Listen. You can lose as much as anyone else.

Peter Lynch gives an example:

Let’s say your neighbor puts 10,000 USD in a share that costs 50 USD per share. Now it’s down to $3 and you’re thinking, “Good thing I waited, now it can’t drop any lower,” combined with, “how much can I lose, it’s only $3.”

You now buy $25,000 in stocks and feel like a king compared to that neighbor.

But wait. The stock now drops down to $0 per share. It’s game over.

Who has lost the most? Your neighbor or you?

“Most people can’t even answer that question,” says Peter Lynch, and the audience laughs.

Of course, you both lost everything, and the one who has invested the most lost the biggest amount.

Don’t be tempted to put money into a stock just because the nominal value seems cheap. Whether it’s cheap or not depends on so many other things.

For starters, how many shares did the company slice itself into? Do they even make any money? Did you check? You won’t know if something is cheap or expensive until you open the books and start looking at what’s really there – which I can teach you how to do in my e-book right here.

5. “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

It’s a bit of an old superstition to think that when things are bad, they can’t get any worse. Some people look at the stock or the business and almost rejoice that things are going really badly, because they think that now things must turn around.

But who says so?

Peter Lynch gives examples of a lot of age-old companies that lost revenue and money. People back then said something like, “it’s absolutely horrible, let’s buy it.”

But really… it can always get worse. A company can go bankrupt. Instead of saying “it’s always darkest before dawn,” say “it’s always darkest before it’s pitch black.”

Yes, of course, that’s also nonsense, but Lynch uses humor to get his point across.

6. “When it rebounds, I’ll sell.”

People passively hold on to a stock that has fallen, promising only to sell when the loss has been recouped. They tell themselves that they will sell when it’s back at the starting point.

This is the wrong approach.

Peter Lynch offers an example: let’s say you bought a stock at 10 USD, but then it drops to 6 USD. You want to hold onto the stock until it rebounds to 10.

If you are really sure it will go from 6 to 10, you should load up the truck with the shares. But people don’t. They just hold it.

What happens then? Let’s say the stock goes up, but it never reaches $10 again. It hits $7. And $8, and $9.50.

And then it falls again.

Then what? How great was your strategy then?

The idea of ​​passively holding onto a stock until goes up to your buying point is foolish.

The stock has no idea you bought it, Peter Lynch explains. People treat stocks as if there is a relationship and as if the stock owes them something.

But the stock market doesn’t care what price you bought a share at.

7. “Me? Worry? I own ‘conservative’ stocks.”

This is the idea that some companies have been around so long that they will always be around. But that is nonsense.

There is no such thing as a “conservative” stock.

Companies are dynamic and the market is constantly changing.

Peter Lynch lists a number of old, venerable companies with more than 100 years of history… that went bankrupt.

8. “Look at all the money I lost by not buying the stock.”

People worry too much about companies that they’ve missed. It’s usually the latest high-flying and shiny stock that they sigh and drool and beat themselves up over.

Don’t worry.

“You can’t lose money on stocks you don’t own,” Peter Lynch says, adding, “the only way to lose money is to buy a stock, have it go down, and then sell it.”

9. “The stock has gone up, I must be right.” (Conversely, “The stock has gone down, I must be wrong.”)

Let’s say you buy shares in a company and it goes up 30% right away. You will probably feel like the king of the hill and run around, look at cars, and book an expensive holiday. Inside, you see a bright future for yourself. You feel you are right. You are a moneymaking machine. Yeehaw!

But wait a minute. Did you open the annual report before investing? Have you researched it? What is it that you are right about?

Your research and knowledge will not improve just because the stock has gone up.

The reverse happens when the stock falls. Then you feel like selling the kids’ used toys because the future looks bleak.

But stocks go up and down a lot over the course of a year. A share moves, on average, 50% between the lowest and the highest point during a year, Peter Lynch explains. Perhaps the latest rise or fall means approximately… nothing?

10. “This is the next (insert hot stock here)”

When a stock you own goes up, you may think you’ve found the next big thing, but take a moment to pause and make sure you haven’t got a “whisper stock” or a “long shot” on your hands.

What are whisper stocks and long shots?

Whisper stocks are the kind of stocks that people whisper about, saying it’s the latest new miracle (in the old days, stockbrokers would call you on the phone with these tips).

Peter Lynch also calls them long shots, because what you think they can accomplish is simply too far-fetched.

They typically make no money – sometimes they even generate no income at all (think biotech for example), but there’s talk that they are “the next” something (insert whatever hot company you can think of here).

This kind of “miracle” shares should be avoided, says Peter Lynch.

Everyone Has the Brains but Not the Stomach

Peter Lynch explains that it is not particularly difficult to be an investor. You can get by with math skills of a 5th grader.

But it will challenge you in a different way.

“Everybody has the brain power for the stock market, but do you have the stomach?”

He explains how there has always been something to worry about up through the decades.

In the 1950s, people were concerned that there would be a recession or a nuclear war, but neither of those materialized and the 50s became one of the best decades in the stock market. However, many people shied away from investing because of that fear.

So What Should You Do?

There is no way around it. You have to know what you are investing in. You have to open the 1o-K, calculate a little. You have to look at the product and evaluate it (alternatively, you have to invest in cheap index funds).

Luckily, you can learn a lot more about how to do so in my little e-book Free Yourself here.

 

The 10 Best Investing Podcasts for Value Investors 

The 10 Best Investing Podcasts for Value Investors 

What are the 10 best investing podcasts for you as a value investor, and how should you go about listening to them?

There are tons of podcasts out there, but the main danger is that you could end up wasting a lot of time. That’s why I’ve made a list of the best investing podcasts out there that can make you a better investor.

I have selected specific episodes that focus on value investing.

The Best Investing Podcasts Are Often About Something Else

There are some inherent problems with investing podcast. First of all, sometimes they get very nerdy and geeky because we’re dealing with people who are very specialized in a topic.

If the interviewer is also specialized, the conversation can become dry and even difficult to understand as they’ll use a vocabulary that is not accessible to outsiders to the industry.

This kind of nerd-interviewing-nerd podcast is brilliant if you have trouble falling asleep. But you don’t learn that much.

That’s why some of the best investing episodes take place on podcasts that are not usually about investing, such as Lex Fridman, Tim Ferriss and even a podcast about home decor… as you will find below.

Another problem is that a long podcast series can feel like dull homework.

I’ve actually made the mistake of trying to listen to ALL the episodes of a particular series. It’s frustrating and a waste of time. I have, among other things, attempted that with The Investor’s Podcast (TIP), but that didn’t make me happy, because I couldn’t keep up (they now have over 600 episodes on the main series and have expanded to a total of 7 different podcast series.)   

The list I have put together for you here will take you directly to some of the absolute best episodes featuring relevant interviews with investors who can really teach you something.

Let’s dive in…

1. Bill Ackman on the Lex Fridman Podcast (Episode #413)

Lex Friedman’s podcast started out as a podcast about artificial intelligence, but he branched out, and his podcast has become incredibly popular with millions of listeners. Over time, he has interviewed countless celebrities such as Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos.

His style is calm and considered, and you sense that he comes prepared. A podcast typically lasts 2-3 hours, so it’s almost equivalent to reading a book.

Don’t miss his interview with the famous value investor Bill Ackman. Ackman is, in my opinion, the most talented value investor after Warren Buffett.

In addition to providing investing wisdom, it’s also a touching interview, with Ackman openly talking about divorce, a hostile takeover attempt, and falling in love again with MIT professor Neri Oxman, who hit the media with pictures with Brad Pitt and rumours of an affair…while Bill Ackman was dating her.

You can find it on YouTube here, on Apple here and on Spotify here.

2. Ted Weschler on I am Home

I am Home is usually a podcast about home, decorations and interior design. I can imagine the team behind the podcast must have wondered what hit them when they got a huge scoop in the form of an interview with Ted Weschler.

Who?

Okay, let’s rewind.

As you know, Warren Buffett is an old man, approaching 100 years of age. Nobody lives forever… who will invest for his company Berkshire Hathaway when he dies? It will probably be “Ted and Todd”.

Wait? Who? Yes, they are not household names yet. That’s Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. Warren Buffett once said that Ted and Todd are not on the panel at the annual meeting in Omaha because he considers them to be trade secrets.

Therefore, these two trade secrets rarely give interviews.

Ted Weschler probably thought it was pretty harmless to be interviewed on I Am Home about living in one place and working in another (he commutes from one state to another).

Fortunately, he also talks about meeting Warren Buffett and generally about his career, and he touches on various investment decisions.

The episode is originally from April 22, 2022, but doesn’t age. You can listen to it on Apple here or Spotify here.

3. Todd Combs on I am Home

When I am Home realized that the downloads exploded with Ted, they followed up with an interview with Todd.

The podcast series is usually about thermostats and pillows, and that means the discussion is pretty broad. Todd Combs talks about how he became an investor, how he held meetings with Charlie Munger and later Warren Buffett without realizing that they were screening him to work for Berkshire Hathaway.

At one point, Todd Combs says something about selling put options far out of the money, and the interviewer doesn’t understand what he’s saying, which is deeply frustrating for a listener like me who wants to hear more about it. I’d be dying to ask if he uses any kind of option trades as part of his investment strategy. But they quickly move on.

Todd Combs explains that the financial crisis was difficult for him personally because he worked 100 hours a week and lost the desire to run his own fund. That probably made it easy for Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett to lure him over to their team.

One important point he makes is how you get good at something. He says you shouldn’t focus so much on whether you get 1,000 or 10,000 hours of training (a point that comes from Malcolm Gladwell’s blockbuster book Outliers: The Story of Success), but focus instead on the quality of the hours, especially on whether it’s passive or active learning.

Passive and active? What does that mean?

Listening to podcasts and reading books are passive hours. When you dive into the material, open 10Ks and research companies, it’s active learning.

In other words, listening to podcasts is fine, but you have to realize that you learn far more from getting invested and doing the work (and diving into the companies and analyzing them is exactly what we do at The Value Investor Mastermind.)

You can listen to the interview on Apple here or Spotify here.

4. Todd Combs on Art of Investing

The folks at I am Home are not the only ones to get their hands on Todd Combs – so has the investing podcast Art of Investing. In this podcast, we learn more about how he trained as an investor, and how mother, his education, and his first jobs influenced his career and thinking.

One of his points is that you need to have broad knowledge to be a good investor, but you also need to dig deep and have specific knowledge about the company in which you invest.

Of the two interviews, I think the one from I am Home is better, but you can’t get enough Todd Combs and there is very little about him out there.

You can listen to the episode on Apple here or Spotify here.

5. Value Investing Fundamentals with John Huber on TIP (Episode #634)

I’m a little hesitant to mention the behemoth of all investing podcasts, TIP – The Investor’s Podcast – because there is a serious risk of you going down the rabbit hole of trying to listen to more than 600 nerdy episodes (like I did).

The Investor’s Podcast has sub-podcasts. The main one is called We Study Billionaires, but they have six others, including one about real estate, Silicon Valley and investing for millennials.

One way to approach TIP could be to select the sub-series called Richer, Wiser, Happier, hosted by author William Green, who interviews the best investors in the world. It’s a smaller series and much more manageable – and it’s definitely one of the best investing podcasts in the world. (By the way, I really recommend William Green’s book, Richer, Wiser, Happier. It is one of the best investment books I have read.)

One specific episode from the main series We Study Billionaires that is very much worth your while is episode #634 with John Huber, because in a single hour he actually explains quite well what value investing is all about.

One of the wise things that John Huber says is that you will get more out of practicing analyzing companies than reading yet another investment book. It kind of rhymes with Todd Comb’s point about active and passive learning. I totally agree. It is about diving in and learning to analyze companies. You have to dig in and get dirt under your nails, really doing the work.

You can listen to the interview with John Huber on Apple here or Spotify here.

You can find TIP’s own homepage here, and Richer, Wiser, Happier with William Green here.

6. “Selling Out” on The Memo with Howard Marks

Value Investor Howard Marks, who runs the hedge fund Oaktree Capital Management, hosts a podcast he calls The Memo.

A bit of background: Howard Marks also writes a newsletter, and Warren Buffett once said that he stops everything he’s doing when an email from Howard Marks hits his inbox because his newsletter is that good.

Warren Buffett once wrote a letter to Howard Marks urging him to write a book and offered to write the introduction to it. Marks took him up on the offer. He has since written two books.

However, the problem with the best money managers is often that they are geeky professionals who love jargon and sometimes have trouble communicating with ordinary people like you and me. That being said, I think Howard Marks is doing a pretty decent job explaining himself.

One specific episode worth a listen could be “Selling Out”, which is about when you should sell your shares. His main point is that you should NOT just sell because the stock is going up or down, which is what most people do as a reflex.

You can listen on Apple here or Spotify here and get wiser about selling stocks.

You can also find the podcast on Oaktree’s own homepage here.

7. Howard Marks on The Tim Ferriss Show (Episode #338)

The Tim Ferriss Show is probably my favorite podcast, but it’s usually not about investing.

Tim Ferriss, the author behind the bestselling book The 4-Hour Workweek, focuses on entrepreneurship, efficiency and the good life.

One of my favorite episodes – which isn’t about investing at all – is podcast #694 with Sam Corcos because it’s bursting with ideas on how to be efficient and live a good life. Sam Corcos specializes in hiring personal assistants, so he talks a lot about outsourcing and being efficient. My brain almost flew out of my ears when Corcos explained that he doesn’t follow the news or engage in social media at all – he has an army of assistants to handle that sort of thing for him. One easy little tip from that specific episode: he says that the best productivity hack for regular people who are not about to hire an assistant is to learn all the keyboard shortcuts – so there’s a little task for you today. But let’s get back to investments…

Tim Ferriss, who has a slow and thorough podcast style with very long conversational questions, interviewed the famous value investor Howard Mark in episode #338.

The episode actually dates back to 2018, but it will never age, as he talks about the difficult psychological aspects of investing. Howard Marks also talks about how you can identify bull and bear markets. He says that if you turn on the news and listen, you should take note on the general mood. Is it negative or positive overall? This can be one of several landmarks.

He says, “when the recovery is old, the bull market is old, the psychology is elevated, the valuations are high, then you should know that the odds are not on your side, and you should take some money off the table and behave in a more cautious way, and vice versa.”

You can listen to the interview with Mark Howards on Apple here or Spotify here. Or YouTube here. Tim Ferriss provides great notes and a transcript here.

8. Mohnish Pabrai on My First Million (Episode #586)

Mohnish Pabrai is sometimes called the Indian Warren Buffett.

Pabrai actually has his own podcast, Chai with Pabrai, which – if you ask me – is unbearable to listen to because the sound quality is poor and it often consists of unedited lectures.

It’s better to catch Mohnish Pabrai on other podcasts where the audio is good and where a skilled interviewer can ask clarifying questions.

You can check out Mohnish Pabrai on My First Million episode #586.

You can listen on Apple here, Spotify here. Or the podcast’s own website here.

9. Novo Nordisk On Acquired

The investing podcast Acquired analyzes companies and interviews CEOs and founders. The style is thorough, entertaining and well prepared.

Look through the list to see if they made an episode with a company you own shares in or are considering investing in. They have, among others, discussed Starbucks, LVMH and Microsoft on the podcast.

Because I’m Danish, I am going to point you to the episode they made about the Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk.

They start the podcast with a history lesson, and I learned a lot about the origins of Novo Nordisk – about how it was created to save a scientist’s wife, about how diabetes in the old days was a death sentence, about how insulin was extracted from leftovers from animal produce, and how Novo and Nordisk initially were two rivals who hated each other.  Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal are good storytellers and convey everything in a rather entertaining way.

You can find the Novo Nordisk episode on Apple here or Spotify here.

As a side note, there is also an interview with Ben and David on another podcast, Art of Investing. You’ll find that interview on Apple here or on Spotify here.

10. Value Investing with Legends from Columbia

Columbia Business School – where Warren Buffett studied to become a value investor under Professor Ben Graham – has its very own investing podcast called Value Investing with Legends. Here, they interview giants such as Todd Combs (but now we already have him on our list twice), Mohnish Pabrai and Howard Marks. You can pick any of them.

A warning is due here. Remember, we’re dealing with Ivy League professors interviewing money managers. It gets so nerdy your ears might bleed.

You’ll find Columbia’s investing podcasts series on Apple here or Spotify here.

How Should You Listen to these Best Investing Podcasts?

Don’t waste too much time on these investing podcasts. Try to consume them fast and while you’re doing something else.

Listen while you’re driving, walking the dog, or doing the dishes. Increase the speed a little, to 1.25 or 1.5 so it goes a little faster.

Please promise me that you will not attempt to listen to all the podcasts in a series, like I attempted to with TIP. You will waste time and your life will fly by.

Pick the best ones. The risk is that you’ll waste time on “passive hours” instead of active hours where you actually analyze companies and get invested.

If you want to listen to a podcast every day to stay informed, I would suggest Wall Street Breakfast, which you can find on Apple here or Spotify here.

Do you feel like something is missing in the podcast world? I’ve been thinking about creating my own podcast for a long time now.

 How do you know if the price of the stock is reasonable? If you want to learn how Warren Buffett calculates the value of companies, you are welcome to download my free e-book here.

7 Ways to Stomach the Volatility in the Market

7 Ways to Stomach the Volatility in the Market

Stocks are diving, and you feel a sting of anxiety in your stomach when you read the headlines or visit your online bank.

How do you remain calm in that kind of market?

To be a successful investor, you have to avoid the natural human instinct to follow the herd.

When stocks plummet, your natural tendency is going to be to want to sell, and when the stock market is going up, your natural tendency is going to be to want to buy more.

In bubbles, you should be a seller, not a buyer. In busts, you should be a buyer.

You have to have the discipline to stomach the volatility of the stock market.

Here are seven key ways to develop the strength to go against the herd.

1. Be Financially Secure to Stomach any Volatility

First of all, you have to have some savings.

You’ve got to feel comfortable that you have enough money in the bank that you won’t need what you’ve invested for many years to come.

Some people think it’s a shame not to invest every penny that they have. In their world, cash not invested is a waste.

If that’s your thinking, I suggest you look at it this way instead: your cash savings are buying you something very valuable and specific, and that’s peace of mind and the ability to stomach market volatility. You should have at least two types of savings.

A. An emergency account for a car repair or a new fridge. This should be at least 5,000 USD that are always available.

B. A security savings of either three months’ salary or six months’ expenses. This should also be ready in cash. Apart from giving you peace of mind about the stock market, it will also make it easier for you to make some bold career moves and set boundaries at work.

2. Don’t Leverage 

Don’t invest with borrowed money.

Most people know not to take out an expensive bank loan and invest that money or speculate with it.

But there is a different way of borrowing money that is not so obvious to the naked eye. Many platforms let you invest with leverage – almost without you noticing it: it’s called a margin account. Avoid this. You should never invest more than you have.

Investing with leverage has destroyed many good investors, even good value investors who were peers of Warren Buffett.

Call your brokerage platform to make sure that you’re only investing your own money if you’re not sure.

Some more complex financial products contain leverage, but if you are just selling and buying stocks, you are safe. Why is this important?

Leverage and debt makes you more vulnerable to panic and huge losses in a market with high volatility. 

3. Remember: Volatility Happens to Everybody

Just because something goes down in value after you buy it, it doesn’t mean you’ve made an investing mistake.

Remember that no one is immune. We all sometimes see red numbers – it’s how you react that matters. Are you going to panic and turn it into a permanent loss or be cool? 

Keep your focus on the long-term prospect.

The stock market moves up and down all the time. Volatility is just part of the game. 

In the short term it’s a voting machine, whereas in the long term it’s a weighing machine.

It’s affected by all kinds of events in the world, and few of these events have anything to do with the business of the company that you are invested in. This is just the nature of volatility. But don’t worry, if your company is sound and has some competitive advantages, the stock price will straighten itself out in the long run.

If it’s any consolation, Warren Buffett has also invested in companies only to see the stock price drop further. One example is The Washington Post, which he invested in during the 1970s. More than a year after he initially invested in the newspaper, the stock price was down 25 percent.

This investment later turned into a profitable one. Four decades later, Buffett exited the position (the original investment of $10 million) in a tax-free swap worth more than $1 billion.

Volatility can really be your friend if you learn how to navigate in it. 

4. Research Your Companies Like an Owner

Don’t buy a stock because someone in a podcast predicted high returns and a glorious future for the company.

Research the companies you invest in. Analyze it the way you would if you were buying the entire company.

  • Make sure it’s a business you understand.
  • Make sure you like the management.
  • Make sure the company has some kind of competitive advantage.
  • Make sure the company doesn’t have too much debt.

Thinking like a owner makes you more resistant to volatility jitters.

It’s a good idea to use some kind of checklist. You can borrow mine here.

5. Pay a Reasonable Price

The price of the stock should be reasonable compared with the earnings of the company.

I usually say “buy it when it’s cheap,” but I fear that many people will think a stock is cheap if it has fallen from a recent high, and that isn’t necessarily the case.

You really have to look at the value in the company and compare the stock price to that.

Let’s go back to The Washington Post for a moment. Warren Buffett had calculated that it was priced at 25 percent of the intrinsic value before investing in it. That’s like buying one dollar for 25 cents. That it fell to 20 cents on the dollar does not make the original investment bad. It means you might want to consider buying some more since it’s an even better investment now.

What if they have no earnings? Don’t invest in it then.

Companies with no earnings or negative earnings are too risky to invest in.

6. Distract Yourself

If you’ve followed the first five points and still feel uneasy, there is only one thing left to do: something else.

The time has come to distract yourself from the market volatility and entertain yourself with other things.

Whether it’s meeting up with a good friend, playing a match of tennis, hiking in nature, playing Monopoly with your kids, watching a show on Netflix, or just concentrating on your work, do it if it can take your mind off worrying about stocks.

If you’ve done all the right things, you can relax and enjoy life – even if the stock market is raging. Leave the fidgeting with the sell button to others.

7. The Very Last Resort: Outsource It

If you find it hard to distract yourself from market volatility and if have a hard time staying away from the panic button (selling at a loss), you may want to consider letting others invest for you.

 As Warren Buffett says, investing doesn’t take a high IQ – it takes a calm attitude.

 You may be smart and informed, but if you are nervous as a leaf in the wind, it’s going to be difficult for you to make wise investment decisions because the herd reaction can get you galloping.

 Outsourcing the investment work is a solution to this. One method may be to invest the same amount each month in passive index funds, but this method doesn’t have much to do with value investing.

 There are several funds worldwide with a value investing purpose (I run one based in Denmark). One easy option could be to buy shares in Berkshire Hathaway, but just as with any other public stock, you have to make sure that stock price is fair compared to the intrinsic value. Even the most wonderful company can become a horrible investment if the stocks are bought at an inflated level.

 How do you know if the price of the stock is reasonable? If you want to learn how Warren Buffett calculates the value of companies, you are welcome to download my free e-book here.

How to Read the Recent Trades of Major Hedge Funds in 5 Steps

How to Read the Recent Trades of Major Hedge Funds in 5 Steps

Where do you find inspiration to discover your next stock investment? One place you can look is in the portfolios of major hedge funds.

In value investor circles, we call value hedge fund managers “gurus.”

It’s quite common for value investors to keep track of what the well-known fund managers are doing – and even replicate some of their trades.

But how do you keep track, and how do you evaluate their investments?

In this blog post, I’ll give you my top five tips for copying the big gurus.

1. Find a List of Hedge Funds with a Value Approach

The funds investing in the U.S. market must report their trades to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

This makes it easy for us to look up what they have invested in – at least in U.S. stocks.

The SEC’s own website is not so easy to navigate or search, but there are other websites that collect data and make it more manageable.

You can look the gurus up here:

2. Look at the Number of Companies in the Portfolio

Value investors can be divided into two major groups.

  1. Quantitative Gurus: these are hedge funds that invest through financial ratios in many companies. We call them hedge funds with a quantitative focus.
  2. Qualitative Gurus: hedge funds that carefully select companies based on a checklist. We call them hedge funds with a qualitative focus.

We are, of course, interested in the qualitative ones because the companies they have carefully selected are of high quality.

A very rough rule of thumb: if the fund has more than 100 different companies in the portfolio, they are quantitative. But it’s a bit more complicated than that; you should also look at the composition of companies…

3. Look at the Composition in the Portfolio

How much does the guru have in the fund’s largest investment? Value investors with a qualitative approach are not afraid to put a large part of the portfolio into a single company.

As a very rough rule of thumb, a guru with a quantitative focus has a minimum of 10% in a company. However, some value investors set a rule that there must be a maximum of 10% of the fund in a single company, so it’s okay to let it go a bit below 10%.

Here are a few examples of value portfolios with high concentration as of now: 

  • Warren Buffett: half of his portfolio in Apple
  • Buffett’s partner Charlie Munger: 40% in Wells Fargo
  • Li Lu: almost a third in Bank of America

4. Look at the Pattern in Their Recent Trades

We always need to assess their recent trades in a larger context.

First, you need to evaluate whether they are sellers or buyers in the current market.

This gives us an idea of their attitude toward the market. What did they do in the last quarter?

Are they selling more stocks than they are buying? Have they done anything at all in the last quarter? Or are they waiting?

5. Research Their Recent Stock Purchases

What is their latest stock purchase? Is it from the last quarter?

Look up the companies. In your initial scan, you should investigate:

1. Did the stock price fall? As a general rule, I avoid companies whose stock price is at an all-time high.

2. Do they make a profit? I avoid companies that are losing money – unless there is a clear explanation of why a particular year is different (such as the COVID-19 pandemic).

3. Are the revenues growing? I avoid companies that are shrinking.

 Where do you look this up? For a quick overview, I use MSN Money. It’s free and gives you an 8-year overview (click on Financials after you have looked up the company).

Once you’ve found a company where you can answer yes to all three questions, you can start running them through a proper checklist to ensure that it’s a good investment. You can borrow my checklist here.

This is where the real research begins (and you can learn much more about it in the Value Investor Mastermind).

If you want to learn about how I invest in stocks without fearing a crash, you can download my free e-book Free Yourself  here.

7 Steps for Maintaining Inner Peace in Times of Crisis

7 Steps for Maintaining Inner Peace in Times of Crisis

 There is a crisis in the world, and the first thing to vanish is your inner peace. The world trembles, and so do you internally.

But it doesn’t have to be that way.

It might be war in the Middle East and large-scale protests across Europe.

Or perhaps it’s something else. Climate crisis and wildfires. Maybe it’s the stock market crashing like it did during the financial crisis.

I’ll be the first to admit that I am affected by major news.

When the war started in Ukraine, tears streamed down my cheeks. I remember crying in the middle of my morning run or during peaceful moments with my own kids when the children of the war came to mind.

What could I do about the war in Ukraine? Not much. But a little: I ended up hosting a Ukrainian family in my home for a month and a half.

The attack in Israel on October 7th, the hostages in the tunnels, the thousands of civilians killed in Gaza, the protests in the West, and manifestations of anti-Semitism and Islamophobia give me nightmares.

What does all this have to do with investing?

Inner Peace is a Prerequisite for Wealth

It’s natural to be affected by such horrific news, but it doesn’t help anyone if I can’t sleep at night, so I need to turn that around.

In fact, inner turmoil can be harmful because negative energy spreads like wildfire and can affect other areas of your life.

I believe that inner peace and focus is a prerequisite if you want to be good at investing and attracting prosperity.

External pressure requires extraordinary inner peace.

But how do you achieve inner peace when the world around you is upset?

Here is my checklist, primarily written for myself in these times, but perhaps you can also benefit from it.

1. Plan Screen-free Time

You need time where you don’t check the news at all.

Maybe you can even plan it and put it in your calendar?

Whether it’s just a few hours here and there, a whole day, or an entire weekend, you need time where you allow yourself not to think about the crisis.

What about planning a camping trip without the internet?

If you can go a whole day without news and without thinking about it, it’s like hitting the reset button.

When you are looking at the screen, think about how you use your time.

I avoid tabloid journalism and opt for analysis and quality journalism.

Be careful with social media, where there are no filters (like journalists) to sift through the information.

I systematically block anyone entering my thread with hate messages. If they cross a certain line, I also report the post, so they don’t get to spread their hatred and disrupt others’ inner peace.

2. Cultivate Conscious Positive Thoughts and Ideas

We can replace negative thoughts with positive ones.

Positivity is contagious, just like negativity.

My most shared post ever is actually a positive post from a remembrance of the Kristallnacht with the words: “This is what I will think of with gratitude tonight. Thousands of people in Copenhagen showed up to remember the Kristallnacht and to show their support for the small Jewish community in Denmark.” You can see it right here

If in the evening, at bedtime, I feel upset thinking about hostages or bombs, I push the thought away with the image of the beautiful torchlight procession in Copenhagen. It works.

3. Envision How You Want It to Be

In the Middle East, it would be beautiful if Israelis and Palestinians could live in peace and prosperity alongside each other or even together. That’s the ideal. It’s an image I cultivate in my mind.

If stocks fall, I think of the opposite and of prosperity.

I hold the ideal up as a vision that I believe in. I visualize it as if it’s already a fact. It helps create inner peace.

4. Get Enough Sleep, Eat Healthy, and Exercise

No one is well if they don’t have the basics in order: diet, sleep, and exercise.

All of us with children know how cranky and upset our children get if their sleep is disrupted for a single night. Or if they are hungry.

You need to take care of your physical needs lovingly – even when you don’t feel like it.

I have minimized all stimulants that counteract a stable life and can interfere with sleep or appetite.

I currently avoid alcohol altogether and have significantly cut down on coffee, caffeine, and sugar.

I am also very conscious of breathing all the way down to the abdomen – especially in the evening. It helps the entire nervous system calm down.

Here are my best tips if you have trouble sleeping:

Set aside an hour to prepare yourself.

A. Spend twenty minutes preparing for the next day (write down a few tasks to get them out of your head).

B. Spend the next twenty minutes taking a warm bath or shower and making your bedroom cozy. I use a heated pillow in my bed.

C. Spend the last twenty minutes just relaxing in bed and breathing calmly, as if you’re already asleep. There is nothing more effective than breathing to relax. You may read, but no screens. 

 5. Connect with Nature

Take a walk in the forest or on the beach. Feel the sunshine on your face. Get fresh air in your lungs. Listen to the birds chirping and the leaves rustling.

Get out. Every day.

I have a dog, so it happens naturally.

Honestly, it’s downright annoying to have to walk with the dachshund Hugo at 6 a.m…. but as soon as we’re out the door, I enjoy the fresh air, movement, and freedom.

It’s like being cleansed a bit. Letting some air into the upper floor. It helps.

6. Find a Simple Activity that Calms You

When I was on maternity leave, I couldn’t get enough of knitting. It was the only thing my tired brain could handle in the evenings. These days, I am obsessed with solving crossword puzzles.

With crossword puzzles, I have to concentrate enough that I can’t think of anything else, and it’s also pretty boring, and it makes me sleepy.

Crossword puzzles have become one of the last parts of my evening routine. What can this activity be for you?

 7. Focus on One Thing You Can Do to Promote the Ideal

Focus on what you can change, and leave the rest.

It helps to do something.

When Russia attacked Ukraine, it helped me to host a Ukrainian family in my home. I focused on that. There were a lot of task involved. Finding a school for their son. Getting them registred. Getting their dog to the vet. Helping figure out the bus system. 

What could it be for you?

Maybe you can donate some money? Maybe you can volunteer for an organization?

Perhaps you can learn something? If, for example, you are afraid of losing money in the stock market in a new financial crisis, learn about investing.

My usual subject is investing and creating a prosperous mindset.

If you want to learn how I invest in stocks without fearing a crash, you can download my free e-book Free Yourself here.

Warren Buffett’s Latest Stock Moves

Warren Buffett’s Latest Stock Moves

Many people scrutinize Warren Buffett’s moves on the stock market.

Why? Some want to copy his trades. Others simply want to understand the choices he makes and how he thinks, to emulate his entire style.

Fortunately, it’s easy to gain insight into what he’s investing in.

Every quarter, he has to disclose what stocks his company Berkshire Hathaway has bought or sold to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

It’s that time of year when those trades are being disclosed for the third quarter.

Let’s take a look…

Warren Buffett’s Stock Purchases

 

In the third quarter, Warren Buffett bought shares in:

– Media company Liberty Media Corp (LLYVK and LLYVA)

– Media company Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI)

– And baseball team Atlanta Braves Holdings (BATRK).

Before you rush out to buy shares in these three companies, you should know that he bought very small positions.

Together, these three companies make up less than 0.20% of his portfolio of publicly traded stocks.

This tells us that it’s probably not Warren Buffett himself making these investments, but one of his two managers, Ted Weschler or Todd Combs. They run their own portfolios that are small, relatively speaking.

It may be challenging to draw any meaningful conclusions from tiny purchases without looking at what Berkshire Hathaway is selling…

Warren Buffett’s Stock Sales

The Oracle of Omaha has spent the third semester doing some fall cleaning in his stock portfolio. He has completely sold out of seven companies and reduced his stock position in six others.

Completely out are:

– Shipping service company UPS

– Industrial conglomerate Procter & Gamble

– Food company Mondelez International (known for Toblerone, among other things)

– Medical, pharmaceutical and personal care company Johnson & Johnson

– Car manufacturer General Motors

– Gaming company Activision Blizzard

– Chemical company Celanese

He has trimmed and cut positions in:

– Insurance company Globe Life

– Insurance company Markel

– Software and IT company Hewlett Packard (HP Inc).

– Energy and oil company Chevron

– Consulting company Aon

– Retail giant Amazon

Warren Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway still owns shares in 45 publicly traded companies (as well as many companies where they own 100%).

You can see Warren Buffett’s portfolio of publicly traded stocks here and stock trades here, and the entire portfolio of subsidiaries here.

What Can We Conclude About Warren Buffett’s Stock Moves?

Berkshire Hathaway sold far more stocks in the third quarter of 2023 than they bought.

They sold approximately $7 billion USD (about 48 billion DKK) and bought for $1.7 billion USD (just under 12 billion DKK).

It may sound like a lot of money, but it’s not for Warren Buffett, who has a war chest of over $157 billion USD.

It’s an enormous amount of money to keep out of the market.

What is he doing? Either the 93-year-old investor has fallen asleep… or he’s reacting to the fact that…

…The Market is Overheated

 

Shiller’s P/E ratio – which is a measure of how expensive the market is – is now around 30, which is as high as it was just before the crash in 1929. You can see Shiller’s P/E ratio here

P/E relates the stock price to earnings (hence the name price/earnings).

A P/E of 30 essentially means that you are paying 30 dollars for one dollar of profit in the company. The historical average and reasonable level for stocks is a P/E of 15-16.

A P/E of 30 also means that you can expect a return of around 3% in the market. That’s below the interest rate of many bonds. So what is he doing? He is waiting for good opportunities and is probably frustrated that he isn’t finding any elephant-size opportunities.

In the next blog post, I will take a look at what other value investors are buying stocks in.

Not everyone is as restrained as Warren Buffett.

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If you want to learn how I invest in stocks without fearing a crash, you can download my free e-book Free Yourself here.